A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
